The value of uncertainty: the Zika and Microcefalia link

Authors

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.17267/2675-021Xevidence.v1i2.2541

Keywords:

Causality. Uncertainty. Zika virus. Microcephaly

Abstract

Scientific paradigm violations are common in the medical literature. This article aims to describe the principles that should guide scientific thinking, such as the philosophy of skepticism, the consideration of multiple hypothesis, epidemiological criteria to demonstrate association, concern about random errors and the need to quantify the strength of association. We use the hypothesis of causality between Zika and microcephaly to illustrate these principles and cognitive mechanisms that predispose to its violation. This is an example of dissociation between certainty and level of evidence, since the association between these two entities was confirmed at a time when there was no evidence of quality that supported this association.

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Published

12/20/2019

Issue

Section

Thought Experiments

How to Cite

1.
Silva Matias D, Lemos Correia LC, Oliveira Medina da Silva D, Rabelo Laporte L, Souza Freire CV, de Araújo Grisi G, et al. The value of uncertainty: the Zika and Microcefalia link. Evidence [Internet]. 2019 Dec. 20 [cited 2024 May 27];1(2):116-24. Available from: https://journals.bahiana.edu.br/index.php/evidence/article/view/2541